Imports to major US container ports are expected to remain at elevated levels as retailers rush to bring in merchandise ahead of new tariffs on goods from China and other manufacturing countries. This is according to the Global Port Tracker report released Monday by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.
The trend of front-loading imports has been ongoing since late last year and is expected to continue through 2025 without signs of slowing down.
Ports in the US tracked by Global Port Tracker handled 2.14 million TEU (twenty-foot equivalent units) in December, excluding the Port of New York and New Jersey and the Port of Miami due to unreported data. This was down slightly by 0.9% from November but up a significant 14.4% year-over-year, marking the busiest December on record.
Total container volume for US ports in 2024 is projected to reach 25.5 million TEU, up 14.8% from the previous year and close to the pandemic-era record of 25.8 million TEU in 2021.
Container ship being loaded at a port, illustrating US import volume.
Image: Container loading operations at an international seaport, illustrating the flow of goods imports into the United States.
Tariff Impact on Imports
NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold stated that front-loading imports is one of the measures retailers are taking to mitigate the short-term impact of tariffs.
“While we support the need to address the fentanyl crisis at the border, new tariffs on China and other countries will mean higher prices for American families,” Gold emphasized.
He also noted that retailers have implemented several strategies to lessen the impact of tariffs, including accelerating imports of certain items. However, this has added to challenges in warehousing and logistics costs.
Concerns about potential further tariffs on imports from China are also driving businesses to bring goods in earlier.
“There’s more than one tariff out there,” Gold told FreightWaves. “Former President Trump has proposed a universal baseline tariff, increasing tariffs on China and some other countries, as well as reciprocal tariffs. That creates a lot of uncertainty for retailers’ supply chains.”
Tariff Developments and Supply Chain Impacts
Tariff concerns and the threat of a months-long port worker strike fueled front-loading throughout December.
On February 1st, the White House announced a 25% tariff on most imports from Canada and Mexico, along with a 10% tariff on goods from China. However, tariffs on Canada and Mexico were suspended for 30 days starting February 3rd, while tariffs on China took effect on February 4th.
Since the majority of retail goods from Canada and Mexico are transported by truck and rail, the short-term impact on container volume at US ports is expected to be minimal.
“At this stage, the situation remains fluid, and it is too early to know whether tariffs will be enforced, eliminated, or further delayed,” said Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates. “Therefore, our outlook for North American imports remains largely unchanged for the next six months.”
Meanwhile, the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance reached a tentative contract agreement just days before the current contract was set to expire on January 15th. ILA members are expected to vote on the new contract later this month.
US Port Container Import Forecast
Although January import figures are not yet available, Global Port Tracker forecasts volume at 2.11 million TEU, up 7.8% year-over-year.
February — typically the slowest month of the year — is projected to reach 1.96 million TEU, a slight increase of 0.2% despite factory closures in China for Lunar New Year.
Import forecasts for the following months:
- March: 2.14 million TEU (+11.1%)
- April: 2.18 million TEU (+8.2%)
- May: 2.19 million TEU (+5.4%)
- June: 2.13 million TEU (-0.6%)
Germany container trucks struck: In the context of increasingly complex and volatile global supply chains, events such as trade conflicts, tariff policy fluctuations, and the possibility of port strikes not only directly impact container transport operations on major sea routes but also indirectly affect other regions and modes of transport. For example, disruptions in the flow of containerized goods from Asia to the US can create ripple effects, impacting the demand and prices of road transport, including the container truck market in Germany and Europe, due to changes in the global trade balance and cargo flows.
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Source: Phaata.com (According to Freightwaves)
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